Does Iran pose a legitimate nuclear challenge?
Does Iran intend to build weapons of mass destruction? As debate on the issue continues, Professor Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University, recently visited Concordia to discuss the sensitive topic. What follows is a question and answer culled from a round table with media on the Iranian nuclear challenge:
Question: There is mounting concern about Iran’s alleged drive to develop nuclear weapons. Given the potential threat to Israel, when do you think it would be too late for Israel to take meaningful military action to set back Iran’s plans?
Answer: The obvious Israeli dilemma is waiting for the international community to take care of the Iranian nuclear threat. In the absence of this type of action on the part of the international community, Israel will have to make a difficult decision whether to destroy the key components of the nuclear program, particularly the uranium enrichment facilities. There is a certain sense of urgency coming from Jerusalem.
Q: What would be the repercussions of any attack on Iran, on Israel or the wider community?
A: If an attack is successful, there will be no repercussions. I think there is great exaggeration in the ability of Iran to exact cost from Israel or from the West. If Iran is attacked, they have missiles they can shoot at Israel or at American targets in the region. The Israelis can defend themselves because they have ballistic missile defence systems.
Iran may also stop the flow of oil for a while, but this is not Israel’s problem and I think that the international community will react to this type of challenge. From what I know, the Americans can retake the [strategically important] Hormuz Strait in two weeks.
Q: The former Israeli prime minister and security leaders have recently suggested the threat from Iran is overstated. How do you respond to this statement?
A: I don’t think it’s overstated. We see capabilities and also intention. The president of Iran has said openly that he wants to destroy the Jewish state. This is part of their foreign policy agenda and many elements in the Iranian regime have repeated this type of inflammatory statement.
Q: How has the Arab Spring impacted Israeli security? Do you think Egypt’s new government will continue to honour their peace treaty with Israel?
A: There are signs that there will be a cooling in the chilly relationship between Israel and Egypt. The new elite coming to power — the Islamists — see Israel as a religious aberration, but they may behave cautiously because they need to feed their people and they need American financial assistance.
What Israel is most concerned about is the situation in Sinai, where Egyptians have lost control. The Sinai desert has become a Somalia in which terrorists and Islamic radicals are roaming freely and challenging Egyptian authority. Police stations are being attacked by the Bedouins in Sinai. The gas pipeline has been sabotaged several times. We are very concerned about the future of Sinai and we are concerned that an Egyptian government that is consumed by domestic problems will not be able to exercise its sovereignty in the Sinai desert.
Q: Recent events in Syria show no signs of ending. Do you think a potential regime change in Syria will have an impact on their relationship with Israel?
A: If Bashar Hafez al-Assad stays in power, we’ll see the continuation of the status quo and maybe some diversionary war activities trying to divert attention from domestic problems to the border. If there is a change in regime, we may see a radical Islamic regime rising. We already see the radical Islamist element in the Syrian opposition. The struggle will probably continue for a while.
Q: Do you believe there is any chance of reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah?
A: I think there is a lot of bad blood between Hamas and Fatah. So far, they were unable to implement the reconciliation agreement. I think the likelihood of a true reconciliation within the Palestinian national movement is very slim.
Q: Canada appears to be a staunch supporter of Israel in the world. What is the potential impact on Canada’s relationships with other Middle Eastern countries? Can Canada play any meaningful role in resolving disputes in the region?
A: The Israelis look at Canada as a fabulous country that has the courage to display its moral compass. We are very thankful to the Canadian government and to its prime minister, Stephen Harper, for his courageous stand in defending democracy. I don’t think this is necessarily costly in terms of Canadian foreign policy. If it is, I think the Canadians have made the right choice and are ready to pay somewhat for sticking to their principles.
Related links
• Efraim Inbar
• Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies