November 12 - 19, 2014

Contents

Compiled by – Mike Taylor

1. Expulsion of major players from Zanu PF
2. Factionalism
3. Assassination plot?

1. Expulsion of major players from Zanu PF

Independent Media

Zimbabwe Independent, 14 November, 2014
“Mugabe purges Mujuru allies”, by Faith Zaba and Elias Mambo

• Robert Mugabe has begun to lay the ground to oust Vice President Joice Mujuru.
• Former Minister of Agriculture and long-time Zanu PF member Rugare Gumbo (74) has been suspended from the Zanu PF for five years. Several others were also ejected from the party through votes of non-confidence. In the case of Gumbo, the reason given was an attempted coup.
• War veterans’ leader, Jubulani Sibanda was also relieved of his duties.
• The suspensions come after faction leader Emmerson Mnangagwa, party secretary for legal affairs, presented a report to the national disciplinary committee. 
• It seems that most of the party ejections are a result of people in positions of prominence not supporting Grace Mugabe during and after her tour circuit in Zimbabwe.

State-owned Media

The Herald, 14 November, 2014
“Politburo suspends Gumbo, expels Jabu”, by Farirai Machivenyika  

• The Zanu PF politburo has expelled Zanu PF national spokesperson Rugare Gumbo from the party for five years.
• Other legislators have also been suspended from the Zanu PF as a result of the Politburo meeting.
• War veterans leader, Jubulani Sibanda has been permanently expelled from the party.
• Calls for Gumbo’s removal had arisen recently for his role in supporting the Mujuru faction.
• The Herald, claims that his appearance on a ZBC program confirmed that he was plotting against Mugabe as he said that the succession issue was the most critical matter to be discussed at the party’s upcoming December congress.
  

Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, 14 November, 2014
“Rugare Gumbo Suspended, Jubulani Sibanda expelled”

• The Politburo meeting ending Thursday night saw the suspension of Secretary for Information and Publicity, Rugare Gumbo.
• Jubulani Sibanda was also expelled and several votes of non-confidence passed against provincial leaders.
• The announcements were made by Zanu PF National Chairperson Simon Moyo. The suspensions and expulsions were to take immediate effect.

The Herald, 15 November, 2014
“Gumbo, Jabu expulsion hailed”, by Farirai Machivenyika

• Political analysts and Zanu PF members hailed the Politburo decision to remove Rugare Gumbo and Jubulani Sibanda from the party’s ranks.
• The University of Zimbabwe’s chairperson of the Political Science Department, Dr. Charity Manyeruke said that the decision showed that no individual was bigger than the party.
• She also noted that the decision shows that the Zanu PF prioritizes discipline amongst its members.
• She said that Rugare Gumbo had abused his position to pursue factional interests.
• Local Harare lawyer, Terrence Hussein also said that it was imperative that decisive action be taken following recent political uncertainty.

2. Factionalism

Independent Media

Southern Eye, 14 November, 2014
“Mugabe fight gets dirty”

• Information minister Jonathan Moyo is upset that items he seems to have written dating from 2005 have surfaced indicating a desire for Robert Mugabe to step down.
• The group who published the writings is anonymous, but claims to be against regime change.
• Articles written in 2008 and 2011 call Mugabe’s dismissal a ‘strategic necessity’.
  

Daily News, 14 November 2014
“Axing Mujuru will backfire”, by Gift Phiri

• Analysts note that it is possible that the Mujuru faction may join with the political opposition.
• This could in turn result in the mass resignation of parliamentarians who are members of the opposition as well as supporters of Mujuru. The effect of that would be an election and the possible democratic fall of the Zanu PF.
• The opposition and the Mujuru faction of the Zanu PF allegedly have the number of seats needed to back such a plan.

Daily News, 16 November, 2014
“Mugabe wants no successor”, by Chris Goko and Gift Phiri

• Mugabe appears to be looking beyond Joice Mujuru as a successor.
• Grace Mugabe and Defence minister Sydney Sekeramayi seem to now be top contenders (at least theoretically).
• Emmerson Mnangagwa is however the best placed of all potential successors.
• Sekeramayi is well placed too. He has a relatively unblemished record and has a thorough knowledge of security and intelligence issues.
• Analysts say that Mugabe literally wishes to die in office. If he actually appoints a successor, it will be a surprise.
• In 2004, Mugabe had used Mujuru to fight off the power of Emmerson Mnangagwa and now he is using Mnangagwa to fight off Mujuru (at the time, Mnangagwa was in the running to become vice president, but was blocked by an amendment to the Zanu PF constitution requiring a woman to hold the VP position).

The Standard, 16 November, 2014
“What’s next for Mujuru?”

• Joice Mujuru must fight or leave the Zanu PF analysts say.
• The chances of Mujuru retaining her post were slimmed down considerably with the ouster of various allies.
• Only a month ago, Mujuru had popular support in nine out of ten Zimbabwean provinces compared to Mnangagwa’s one out of ten. Now she retains popularity in four.
• Analysts leave the possibility of her and her supporters creating a breakaway party open.

State-owned Media

Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, 14 November, 2014
“Coup plotters warned”

• Zanu PF Mazowe members have confirmed Robert Mugabe is the sole presidential candidate they intend to endorse for the presidency.
• They also resolved that Grace Mugabe should assume the post of Secretary of the women’s league.
• They also recommended that the president should appoint two vice presidents.
• They publicly warned those plotting to oust Mugabe ahead of the December congress.

The Herald, 19 November, 2014
“A man can be VP: Amai Mugabe” by Lloyd Gumbo

• The stipulation that a woman must be Vice President is in the Zanu PF Constitution and not in the national Constitution. Grace Mugabe has reasoned that the national Constitution trumps the one of the Zanu PF and so believes that a man can be VP.
• She made the statement to a crowd of traders at her Mazowe children’s home, endorsing her elevation to the position of secretary for Women’s Affairs.
• She went on to say that VPs were appointed at the pleasure of the president and so calling for Mujuru’s resignation would not be unconstitutional.
• Grace Mugabe also said that the British were using Mujuru to destroy the Zanu PF after their plan with the MDC failed.

3. Assassination plot?

Independent Media

Daily News, 17 November, 2014
“Crux of Mugabe assassination plot”

• The Sunday Mail reported on an alleged assassination plot to topple the rule of President Robert Mugabe.
• The paper said that Mujuru was at the centre of the plot to assassinate Mugabe. However, no facts were brought forth to show what Mujuru’s allies were doing or planning to be tied to the plot.
• Rugare Gumbo and Didymus Mutasa have been accused of speaking of plotting to assassinate Mugabe. A cabinet minister for Mashonaland Central has been accused (but not named) of talking the matter over with hitmen from South Africa and Israel.
• The article concludes by demonstrating that the allegations are completely unfounded and are merely a part of the smear campaign against Joice Mujuru.

State-owned Media

The Sunday Mail, 16 November, 2014
“VP Mujuru linked to President assassination plot”

• Rugare Gumbo and current secretary for administration, Didymus Mutasa have recently spoken of assassinating President Mugabe.
• There is a voice recording of Gumbo making the threat and a report that Mutasa said that ‘Mugabe will be shot’.
• Another Mujuru ally, a Cabinet minister from Mashonaland Central met with hitmen from South Africa and Israel to make such arrangements.
• Mujuru has made no comment, but The Sunday Mail’s analysts think that she needs to disassociate herself from the incident to prove her innocence.