PhD Oral Exam - Altynai Pankratov, Economics

When studying for a doctoral degree (PhD), candidates submit a thesis that provides a critical review of the current state of knowledge of the thesis subject as well as the student’s own contributions to the subject. The distinguishing criterion of doctoral graduate research is a significant and original contribution to knowledge.

Once accepted, the candidate presents the thesis orally. This oral exam is open to the public.

Abstract

This thesis examines how aggregate shocks and public policy shape retirement decisions among older Americans, with a focus on unemployment insurance (UI) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chapter 1 asks whether the pandemic retirement surge would have been larger without generous UI. I develop an incomplete-markets life-cycle model with endogenous retirement and heterogeneity in age, health, survival probabilities, earnings, and employment status. The model evaluates expanded UI in an economy facing higher mortality and unemployment risks. Generous UI increases the value of waiting for reemployment relative to retiring. Under pandemic employment conditions and baseline mortality, expanded benefits reduce retirement shares by 1.01 and 1.39 percentage points at ages 60-64 and 65-69, respectively. These reductions are equivalent to approximately 15-19 percent of the corresponding mortality-shock effects. Retirement transitions decline most among lower earners because lump-sum supplements replace a larger share of lost earnings.

Chapter 2 examines how health, household wealth, and caregiving help explain pandemic retirement using the Health and Retirement Study over 2010-2020. Poorer health is associated with a larger increase in retirement, particularly among workers without a college degree and in occupations less suited to remote work. Retirement increases are also larger among wealthier households. Intensive caregiving is associated with women’s retirement before the pandemic and may have contributed further as care needs rose during the pandemic.

Chapter 3, coauthored with Professor Heejeong Kim and Taegon Yang, uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation over 1996-2012 and local projections to estimate retirement responses to monetary policy shocks. Following an expansionary shock normalized to lower the one-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points, the aggregate retirement share declines by about 2.5 percentage points around month 27. The response then returns toward zero. Responses differ across earnings groups, with retirement falling among lower earners and rising among the highest earners.

Together, the chapters show how public policy, employment opportunities, and financial circumstances shape retirement responses to aggregate shocks.