Date & time
Wednesday, June 17, 2026
3 p.m. – 4 p.m.
3 p.m. – 4 p.m.
Workshops & seminars
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Statistics seminar
Speaker(s)
Dr. John Braun (University of British Columbia)
Cost
This event is free
Organization
Contact
Where
J.W. McConnell Building
1400 De Maisonneuve Blvd. W.
Room LB 921-4
Accessible location
Yes - See details
The Prometheus Wildland Fire Growth Model, Dionysus, and why we should abandon Burn-P3
Abstract:
The Prometheus fire growth model was developed several decades ago. It is a deterministic wildfire projection tool that has been used by some provincial fire management agencies as a decision support tool.
Two proposals for adding stochasticity to the model have been made over the years. Dionysus is essentially a bootstrap based on the data underlying the Prometheus model. Burn-P3 attempts to incorporate randomness by sampling from historic weather streams.
This talk will describe the three models. The talk will conclude with a demonstration that should convince you that one of the models cannot yield correct probabilities.
Online Zoom Link:
https://concordia-ca.zoom.us/j/85664275920?pwd=vNXYPsbUGfn3IbgkEFDlquuXZbINbm.1