by Nasreen Begum
For a brief moment, the internet briefly became obsessed with Dolores Leis Antelo—a Spanish potato farmer dubbed "Trump’s twin" for her striking resemblance to the U.S. President. But while the internet laughed, Dolores Leis Antelo was grieving. Journalists asked her to weigh in on U.S. politics;
she brushed it off, her voice heavy with a more pressing reality: a moth plague threatening her potato farm.
"Trump’s twin" is the face of two diverging realities: the geopolitics of regime shifts and the reality of soil. The bridge between these two worlds is a narrow, 39-kilometre strip of water thousands of kilometres away: the Strait of Hormuz.This is the central tragedy of 2026. While the world watches leaders call their rivals ‘bastards’ in the heat of the Iran-US conflict, the people who feed us are dealing with rising costs, unstable growing conditions, and uncertain futures.
The contrast is telling. The people who feed us — especially women — are often reduced to spectacle, even as they navigate the real and growing pressures of an unstable food system.
We often talk about the Strait of Hormuz as an "oil issue." It carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas (LNG), making it one of the most critical energy chokepoints globally. But in a globalised food system, an oil problem quickly becomes a food problem
As of April 2026, Brent Crude in the Strait has surged above $120 per barrel. Analysts at Axios and the International Energy Agency are warning of a raise to $200 if the blockade doesn’t stop in the middle of this year. The World Food Programme estimates that an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger if high energy prices persist.
When energy flows break, food systems follow.
Because every step of our food system runs on fossil fuels. Fuel drives the tractors, natural gas produces synthetic fertilizers, and diesel moves food across continents. When energy flows break, food systems follow. There’s no buffer — this is the reality of a system built on constant energy flows.
Recent disruptions linked to tensions in the region have already begun to expose this fragility. According to the United States, more than 20% of global fertilizer exports remain blocked due to the ongoing conflict-related blockages, creating a supply bottleneck that threatens future harvests. Urea, one of the world’s most widely used fertilisers, depends on natural gas for up to 80% of its product cost. This means that rising gas prices translate directly into food inflation as Ureas’s cost surged up to 19% in the first week of March alone.
The effects are already visible. Iran's war supply chain disruption is already disrupting shipments and increasing costs for transport, energy and packaging, which will ultimately be passed down to consumers. Lactalis, the world’s largest dairy company, also warns of higher dairy prices due to the Iran war.
We’ve built a food system where the people eating and the people growing are worlds apart — and that distance hides the real cost.
The impacts are not evenly distributed; those with the least economic security are always hit first and hardest. When oil prices rise, it is not only fuel that becomes unaffordable — it is food. In this case, it is the countries that heavily depend on imports, such as those in parts of Africa and South Asia, that bear the highest cost.
For Canadians, this vulnerability is often invisible. The Strait of Hormuz may seem like a distant threat of war, but the domestic food security is an illusion built on global stability. According to SenCanada, more than 80% of the fresh produce imported into Canada goes through the United States, using American ports and shared road transport. That means disruptions in global energy markets do not stay overseas — they travel through supply chains and arrive directly in Canadian supply stores.
At the same time, Canada shows a striking contradiction. The country produces more than enough to feed its population, yet nearly 58% of its food is wasted before it ever reaches a plate. This coexistence of surplus and insecurity reveals that the issue is not scarcity, but distribution, access and system design.
We’ve built a food system where the people eating and the people growing are worlds apart — and that distance hides the real cost. It hides the environmental damage, the labour, and the fragile systems that keep food moving. Modern economies depend on continuous energy flows to deliver essential services, including food.
In a world with rising hunger, this creates a direct tension: are we growing food to eat, or fuel to burn?
Yet, policy responses rarely address this underlying issue. Governments tend to focus on short-term affordability measures: rebates, subsidies, and temporary relief. While these programs can ease immediate pressure, they do little to reduce structural vulnerability. They treat the symptoms, not the system. You cannot stabilise food prices in the long term if the system producing those prices remains dependent on volatile supply chains and fragile energy markets.
In response to energy concerns, many governments are turning to biofuels as a “greener” alternative. But this comes with its own set of problems.
Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East
Plant-based biofuels require vast amounts of water and energy to produce, often diverting crops like corn and sugar away from food markets into fuel tanks. In a world with rising hunger, this creates a direct tension: are we growing food to eat, or fuel to burn? Biofuels don’t remove the dependency — they shift it. Instead of relying on soil alone, we start putting pressure on land, water, and food systems. The underlying issue remains: a system designed around a large-scale, energy intensive production.
When food systems are local and diversified, they are less likely to collapse when something far away goes wrong.
Biofuels don’t remove the dependency — they shift it. Instead of relying on soil alone, we start putting pressure on land, water, and food systems. The underlying issue remains: a system designed around a large-scale, energy intensive production.
As long as the supply chain is long, industrial agriculture depends on fuel-intensive energy generation, synthetic fertilisers, and a long-distance supply chain - we remain tied to volatile chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
If the problem is dependency, the solution isn’t just switching fuels, but a new framework — a deeper transformation in how food systems are governed. That means:
Photo by F Deventhal
Governments must adopt new instruments of environmental governance, that prioritize localization and circularity over globalised efficiency to shorten the distance between farm and plate. Stronger regional food systems, and investments in local production to mitigate the risks of reliance on a distant energy flow. These systems can act like small buffers against global shocks and make our food systems resilient and equitable.
On campus, this could look like expanding food co-ops, supporting local suppliers, reducing food waste, and investing in student-led food programs. These aren’t just “nice” sustainability efforts, but practical pathways to build resilience against global shocks. When food systems are local and diversified, they are less likely to collapse when something far away goes wrong.
It’s easy to think of the Strait of Hormuz as distant — a geopolitical issue for diplomats and analysts. But it’s already shaping the systems we rely on.
It affects fertilizer prices. It affects transport costs. It affects what shows up on shelves — and what doesn’t.
For students, these global disruptions are not abstract. They show up in rising grocery bills, fewer affordable options on campus, and increased reliance on food aid programs. At the Concordia Food Coalition, we see firsthand how global instability translates into local food insecurity. Many students are already navigating food insecurity — and when global supply chains become unstable, those pressures increase.
The next time oil prices spike, the consequences will not remain confined to energy markets. They will move through supply chains, into farms, and onto our plates. They will shape what is available, what is affordable, and who gets to eat.
We like to believe that food security is about having enough food. But as the United Nations reminds us, it also means having reliable access to it at all times. If that access can be disrupted by conflict thousands of kilometres away, then our security is not secure at all. The Spanish farmer worrying about her crops isn’t an exception. She’s a reminder of how interconnected and fragile our systems have become.
At its heart, this isn’t just a story about oil or even about the war. It is about the systems we depend on to eat. A truly resilient system is not a disconnected system but one that is not dependent on a single point of failure.
We start by recognizing that food systems are not just local — they are global, environmental, and political all at once. But we also recognize that change doesn’t only happen at the global level.
It happens in how we design our communities,
how we support local food initiatives,
how we reduce waste,
how we think about food — not just as a product, but as part of a system.
When something as small as a 39-kilometre waterway can influence what people around the world can afford to eat, the issue is no longer distant.
The next time oil prices spike, the consequences will not remain confined to energy markets. They will move through supply chains, into farms, and onto our plates. They will shape what is available, what is affordable, and who gets to eat.
And that raises a question we can no longer ignore:
On campus, that answer becomes an action — support student and community-led food initiatives like the People’s Potato, Hive Free Lunch, Spinach Collective; get involved with groups like the Concordia Food Coalition; push for funding for food transformation ideas; reduce food waste wherever possible.
Next steps on campus:
Nasreen Begum is a Human Environment student at Concordia, Montreal, QC. She is passionate about food justice, sustainability and community-driven change. As an outreach intern at the Concordia Food Coalition, she aims to strengthen an equitable, student-run campus food system.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/un-warns-of-record-hunger-45-million-more-at-risk-if-iran-war-continues
https://www-annualreviews-org.lib-ezproxy.concordia.ca/content/journals/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.27.021405.102124
http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt5hhcr3
https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/lactalis-warns-higher-prices-iran-war-raises-costs/
Second Harvest. (2019). The avoidable crisis of food waste. https://www.secondharvest.ca/research/avoidable-crisis
https://www.universidadeuropea.com/en/blog/what-are-biofuels/.
United Nations News. (2026). Global hunger could surge amid conflict and supply disruptions. https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/04/1167289
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