Emissions Impact of the Calgary Middle-Housing Growth Scenario
Description
This project modeled the embodied and operational carbon emissions of residential housing in Calgary under different densification scenarios, based on projected urban growth. The goal was to establish how much growth can be absorbed in the existing city structure with mild densification scenarios to protect existing greenfield zones. Using GIS tools, we carried out a detailed analysis of every eligible and available lot, respecting zoning requirements and feasible densification. Overall emissions were modeled using our Tools4Cities digital twin. The analysis shows the high potential of densification using infills to reduce future embodied and operational carbon emissions while ensuring adequate and affordable housing for projected population growth.
Budget: $30 000 CAD
Timeline: 2026
Findings
Our work shows that Calgary has capacity enough middle housing units across eligible infill and greenfield parcels to meet projected 2030–2050 housing demand. A full middle-housing build-out scenario accommodates far more growth and achieves a lower emissions intensity per dwelling when compared to a continuation of current low-density residential development trends. Critically, greenhouse gas emissions per unit drop substantially as middle housing share increases, even though total citywide emissions rise with the larger housing stock in both cases. In short, the analysis gives quantitative evidence that steering growth toward middle housing forms, is a viable way to accommodate population growth and improve per-dwelling climate performance.
Our team
- Prof. Ursula Eicker, Canada Excellence Research Chair Laureate in Smart, Sustainable and Resilient Communities and Cities, and Founding Director of NGCI, Scientific director
- Christopher Gibbs, Manager, Software Infrastructure, NGCI, Project coordinator
Research collaborators:
- Fatemeh Izadi, PhD, NGCI
- Kartikay Sharma, PhD, NGCI
