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Workshops & seminars, Conferences & lectures

Citizen Choice - Analyzing Voting in Recent National Elections in the US, Canada and Great Britain (ONLINE)

January 6, 2021 (8:00am - 11:00am & 12:30pm - 3:30pm)
with Dr. Harold Clarke,
Ashbel Smith Professor, University of Texas at Dallas

SPSA - ONLINE 2021 | All times are in CST
Date & time
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
8 a.m. – 3:30 p.m.
Speaker(s)

Dr. Harold Clarke,
Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas

Cost

Participants must register to attend: Register here

Where

SPSA Conference 2021
LIVE ONLINE*
*Registered participants will also have access to all workshop recordings until March 15th 2021

HaroldClarke_2K0A2513

This workshop focuses on the analysis of survey data on voting behavior in recent national elections in the United States, Canada and Great Britain.  Methods for studying the dynamics of job approval ratings for presidents and prime ministers are also considered.

The workshop introduces participants to several important discrete choice models for analyzing individual-level data on electoral choice including binomial, ordered and multinomial logit models and mixed logit models.  Error correction and ARCH time series models for dynamic analyses of voting intentions, the political economy of presidential approval and party support are discussed. 

Example analyses presented in the workshop use survey data gathered in major national election studies conducted in the United States, Great Britain and Canada since 2016, as well as time series data gathered in public opinion polls and major consumer confidence surveys in the three countries.  The workshop emphasizes practical applications of interest to political scientists, political economists and policy analysts and assumes only that participants are familiar with standard statistical methods through the basic linear model. 

Extensive program code for doing data analyses using Stata, R and Eviews are provided to course participants.


Workshop Outline & Reading List

Outline  
  1. Survey Data for Studying Voting Behavior and Election Outcomes
  2. Analyzing Individual-level Data on Electoral Choice - Basics
  3. Multivariate Analyses - Binomial, Ordered, Multinomial Logit and Mixed Logit Models
  4. Heterogeneity and Context - Finite Mixture and Multilevel Models
  5. Dynamic Analyses of Presidential Approval, Voting Intentions and Party Support - Error Correction and ARCH Models
  6. The Donald or Sleepy Joe?  Analyzing Voting in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election with the University of Texas at Dallas Cometrends Data
Readings  

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet, John Freeman, Matthew Hitt and Jon Pevehouse. 2014. Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Clarke, Harold D., Jane Jenson, Lawrence LeDuc and Jon Pammett. 2019. Absent Mandate: Strategies and Choices in Canadian Elections. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Clarke, Harold D., Matthew Goodwin and Paul Whiteley. 2017. Brexit! Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Clarke, Harold D., Matthew Goodwin, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul Whiteley. 2021. Brexit Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ch. 6 "Get Brexit Done," forthcoming.

Long, J. Scott and Jeremy Freese. 2014. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. 3rd edition. College Station, TX: Stata Press.

Stewart, Marriane C., James Hollifield and Matthew Wilson. 2020. "The Supply Side: Does Candidate Gender Matter in Congressional Elections?" University of Texas at Dallas, unpublished paper.


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